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贸易商和分析师表示，中国的铝制造商预计在未来数月增加出口，因为全球制造业状况改善且库存下降将会提振需求。 &nbsp;

中国占全球铝产量的一半以上，但过去五年其在全球价格下滑之际提升产能...
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<p style="font-family:'微软雅黑';color:rgb(51,51,51);"><span style="font-size:16px;">贸易商和分析师表示，中国的铝制造商预计在未来数月增加出口，因为全球制造业状况改善且库存下降将会提振需求。  </span></p>

<p style="font-family:'微软雅黑';color:rgb(51,51,51);"><span style="font-size:16px;">中国占全球铝产量的一半以上，但过去五年其在全球价格下滑之际提升产能，迫使其他地方的冶炼厂停产。半成品铝的出口增加可能会打压伦敦金属交易所(LME)的铝价，并加剧全球贸易紧张关系。今年以来LME铝价上涨了近14%。  </span></p>

<p style="font-family:'微软雅黑';color:rgb(51,51,51);"><span style="font-size:16px;">2015年下半年铝价跌至十年低点后，中国的半成品铝出口下降。  </span></p>

<p style="font-family:'微软雅黑';color:rgb(51,51,51);"><span style="font-size:16px;">据美银美林，2017年前两个月的产量反弹了20%以上。而官方数据显示出口稳定，但尚未赶上产量增长。  </span></p>

<p style="font-family:'微软雅黑';color:rgb(51,51,51);"><span style="font-size:16px;">高盛近期在一份报告中称，中国以外的全球铝库存几乎下降了一半至800万吨，相当于大约12周的消费量，而2009年末创下的峰值是高于22周。2016年需求超过了产出，今年预计还会如此。  </span></p>

<p style="font-family:'微软雅黑';color:rgb(51,51,51);"><span style="font-size:16px;">瑞银驻悉尼分析师DanMorgan称：“半成品出口攀升显然利空LME铝价，未来几个月可能会下跌。”  </span></p>

<p style="font-family:'微软雅黑';color:rgb(51,51,51);"><span style="font-size:16px;">不过他预计年底时铝价会迎来反弹，因中国会抑制国内生产。</span></p>
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